According to the survey, which included over 1,200 respondents, 4% of wage earners received envelope wages regularly or occasionally in 2025. In 2024, the proportion of those receiving envelope wages was also 4%, whereas in 2022, it stood at 5%. The survey results indicate that the risk of receiving envelope wages is highest in construction, accommodation and food services, and manufacturing.
Two main reasons were cited for accepting envelope wages: “I wanted to because I do not wish to pay taxes to the Estonian state” and, to the same extent, “the employer did not offer to pay official wages”.
The survey also asked whether respondents knew anyone in their circle of acquaintances who receives envelope wages. 23% of those surveyed said they did. Last year, this figure was 24%; in 2018, it stood at 27%; and in 2019, it was 29%.
“When it comes to the shadow economy survey, it is important to keep in mind that this is information provided by the respondents themselves. Nevertheless, it gives a fairly good indication of the prevalence of the shadow economy and serves as one of the inputs for the Tax and Customs Board (ETCB) when assessing risk,” said Marju Vahing-Mõttus, Head of the Tax Audit Department of the ETCB.
The survey indicates that the number of people receiving envelope wages is either stable or showing a slight downward trend, with the problem concentrated in certain sectors. As we can also see from the ETCB’s own data, the greatest risks of envelope wages are found in sectors where large amounts of cash change hands and short-term employment relationships are common,” added Vahing-Mõttus. “That is why we are currently, during the summer months, paying particularly close attention to seasonal work and verifying that employment is properly registered and wages are correctly declared.”
The survey also revealed the need to raise employee awareness. “Many people do not know that if an employer fails to pay income tax for them, the employee must declare it themselves,” Vahing-Mõttus noted.
The category of rental income was included in the survey for the first time. The results showed that 4% of respondents earned income from renting out real estate last year. Most often, apartments were rented out, and rental income ranged from 1,200 to 8,000 euros per year. By their own account, 90% of those who rented out property declared their rental income. The survey also revealed that one in ten people knows someone in their circle of acquaintances who does not declare their rental income.
When it comes to excise goods, the situation varies by sector. The survey indicates that the consumption of illegal alcohol has become marginal. Last year, 1% of consumers purchased illegal alcohol, and the same result was recorded in 2024 and 2022. Year after year, respondents also report knowing fewer people in their social circles who consume illegal alcohol.
Purchases of fuel from Latvia have decreased as well, both in terms of the number of transactions and the quantities purchased. Last year, 6% of respondents bought motor fuel from Latvia.
In the tobacco market, the consumption of contraband cigarettes has been on a downward trend in the long term, but attention should be paid to the market for alternative tobacco products, as the survey indicates that 32% of e-cigarette users have used illegal single-use e-cigarettes. Although consumption is mostly occasional, the risk is associated with younger consumers and changing consumption habits.
More detailed results of the survey are available on the ETCB’s website.
The 2026 shadow economy survey was carried out by Turu-Uuringute AS. The purpose of the survey is to assess the prevalence of envelope wages, undeclared rental income, and the consumption of illegal tobacco, alcohol, and fuel among Estonian residents aged 18–74. Data were collected in March 2026, and a total of 1,210 people responded to the survey, which constitutes a representative sample of the Estonian population.
